🔗 Share this article

A mere eight weeks in the past when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a through-ball. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.

“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”

On Sunday, though, the sideline response was much more joyous. As Rogers swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Genuine Hopefuls?

This is a rather hard query to answer. The historical record, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have put together 10 in a row, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach appears to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.

The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the post from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

How Long Can This Continue?

Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more shots and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival the club must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still rediscover their best form.

• The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent could transform into the performer he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.